MLE: Normal Distribution
Suppose \(X_1,\dots,X_n\) are i.i.d. from a normal distribution \(\mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma^2)\). What is the best prediction for \(\mu\) and \(\sigma^2\)?
Answer
The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the mean and variance of a normal distribution are:
\[
\hat{\mu}_{\text{MLE}}
=
\bar{X}
=
\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n X_i
\]
\[
\hat{\sigma}^2_{\text{MLE}}
=
\frac{1}{n}
\sum_{i=1}^n (X_i-\bar{X})^2
\]
Thus, the best prediction (in the MLE sense) for:
the population mean \(\mu\) is the sample mean \(\bar{X}\),
the population variance \(\sigma^2\) is the sample variance with denominator \(n\).
Notes and comments
Comment 1: Note that the variance estimator is biased, however, it is asymptotically unbiased (a general property of MLEs under standard regularity conditions).