Random Walk: Boys and Girls

A couple decide to start having children and keep having children until they have the same number of boys and girls. How many children do they expect to have?

Answer

Consider the difference between the number of girls and boys as a simple symmetric random walk. Without loss of generality, assume the first child is a girl, establishing an initial difference of 1. The random walk proceeds by incrementing or decrementing this difference by 1 with equal probability at each step.

For a simple symmetric random walk on the integers starting at 1, the probability of eventually returning to 0 (i.e., having an equal number of boys and girls) is 1. However, the expected time to return to 0 is infinite. This implies that, on average, the couple will never achieve an equal number of boys and girls.

Notes and comments

Comment 1: Note that the result would also hold for the non-symmetric case i.e. for non-equal chances of boys and girls (the expectation would still be infinite).

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